BusinessWeek has a new interview with Jim Rogers
Q: Do you think the up cycle for commodities has farther to run?
Jim Rogers: If history is any guide, we have further to go. The only sector of the world economy where the fundamentals are getting better is commodities. Farmers can’t get loans for fertilizers [which is constraining crop supply]. It takes 10 years to open a new mine. Stocks peaked in October 2007 and commodities kept going up until July 2008.
If the world economy is going to revive, commodities are going to lead it back up. If the world economy is not going to revive, commodities are still the place to be—especially with governments printing so much money. Look at the 1970s. The world economy was in the tank, but commodities did very well. We have supply constraints. Oil production is declining.
