DENVER–Newmont Mining Corporation (NYSE: NEM) (Newmont or the Company) announced first quarter 2018 results.
Net income: Delivered GAAP net income from continuing operations attributable to stockholders of $170 million or $0.32 per diluted share; delivered adjusted net income1 of $185 million or $0.35 per diluted share, up 35 percent compared to the prior year quarter
EBITDA: Generated $644 million in adjusted EBITDA2, up 12 percent from the prior year quarter
Cash flow: Reported consolidated cash flow from continuing operations of $266 million and free cash flow3 of $35 million
Gold costs applicable to sales (CAS)4: Reported CAS of $748 per ounce, in-line with the Company’s full year guidance
Gold all-in sustaining costs (AISC)5: Reported AISC of $973 per ounce, in-line with the Company’s full year guidance
Attributable gold production: Produced 1.21 million ounces of gold, with no change to the Company’s full year guidance
Portfolio improvements: Approved plans to begin the Yanacocha Sulfides feasibility study and added Chaquicocha Oxides as a new project in Peru; progressed Long Canyon Phase 2 in Nevada to pre-feasibility study; advanced Ahafo North in Ghana to definitive feasibility study; commenced development of Tanami Power Project in Australia
Financial strength: Ended the quarter with net debt under $1.0 billion and $3.1 billion cash on hand; an industry-leading balance sheet with investment-grade credit profile; and a first quarter dividend declared of $0.14 per share, an increase of 180 percent over the prior year quarter
Outlook: Maintained corporate-level production, cost and capital outlook for 2018
“Newmont delivered solid operating and financial results in the first quarter. Costs and production remained in line with guidance, and our next generation of profitable mines – Ahafo North, Yanacocha Sulfides and Long Canyon Phase 2 – advanced on schedule to the next stage of development study. We also generated $644 million in adjusted EBITDA and declared a dividend of $0.14 per share, nearly three times higher than prior year quarter,” said Gary J. Goldberg, President and Chief Executive Officer. “This performance is overshadowed, however, by a tragic construction accident at our Ahafo Mill Expansion that resulted in six fatalities. Production has recommenced at Ahafo and Akyem but civil construction at the Ahafo Mill Expansion project will remain suspended until we and the authorities are satisfied that work can resume safely. In the meantime, our priorities are to support the people who lost loved ones in the accident and cooperate with authorities to investigate its causes, and, with great humility and resolve, to renew our commitment to working safely.”
First Quarter 2018 Summary Results
Net income (loss) from continuing operations attributable to Newmont stockholders of $170 million or $0.32 per diluted share, an increase of $100 million from the prior year quarter primarily due to higher average realized gold prices.
Adjusted net income was $185 million or $0.35 per diluted share, compared to $136 million or $0.26 per diluted share in the prior year quarter; favorable pricing was partially offset by lower production and higher CAS. The adjustments to net income of $0.03 related to restructuring, valuation allowances and other tax adjustments.
Revenue rose eight percent to $1.8 billion for the quarter from higher realized gold price.
Average realized price6 for gold was $1,326, an improvement of $107 per ounce over the prior year quarter; average realized price for copper was $2.88 per pound, an improvement of $0.20 over the prior year quarter.
Attributable gold production decreased two percent to 1.21 million ounces from lower leach activity at Yanacocha, lower grade and scheduled maintenance at Boddington, and lower grade and reduced recovery at CC&V associated with the stockpiling of concentrate for shipment to Nevada, partially offset by improved production from Merian, Tanami, Carlin and Ahafo.
Gold CAS rose seven percent to $982 million for the quarter. Gold CAS per ounce rose to $748 for the quarter due to higher oil prices, higher mill maintenance costs at Boddington, and higher stockpile and leach pad inventory adjustments. These impacts were partially offset by increased sales.
Gold AISC rose eight percent to $973 per ounce for the quarter on higher CAS and increased advanced projects and exploration expense.
Attributable copper production from Phoenix and Boddington decreased eight percent to 12,000 tonnes for the quarter. Copper CAS totaled $47 million for the quarter. Copper CAS was $1.74 per pound, a 16 percent increase over the prior year quarter due to changes in gold-copper cost allocation at Boddington. Copper AISC for the quarter rose 17 percent to $2.07 per pound on higher CAS.
Capital expenditures7 increased by 28 percent from the prior year quarter to $231 million from growth projects including Quecher Main, Subika Underground, and the Ahafo Mill expansion.
Consolidated operating cash flow from continuing operations fell 29 percent from the prior year quarter to $266 million on higher working capital outflows. Free cash flow decreased $162 million to $35 million for the quarter from lower operating cash flow and higher investment in growth projects.
Balance sheet ended the quarter with $3.1 billion cash on hand, a leverage ratio of 0.4x net debt to adjusted EBITDA and one of the best credit ratings in the mining sector. The Company is committed to maintaining an investment-grade credit profile.
Projects update
Newmont’s capital-efficient project pipeline supports stable production with improving margins and mine life. Near-term development capital projects are presented below. Funding for Subika Underground, Ahafo Mill Expansion, Twin Underground, Quecher Main and Tanami Power projects has been approved and these projects are in execution. Additional projects represent incremental improvements to production and cost guidance. Internal rates of return (IRR) on these projects are calculated at a $1,200 gold price.
Subika Underground (Africa) leverages existing infrastructure and an optimized approach to develop Ahafo’s most promising underground resource. First production was achieved in June 2017 with commercial production expected in the second half of 2018. The project is expected to increase average annual gold production by between 150,000 and 200,000 ounces per year for the first five years beginning in 2019 with an initial mine life of approximately 11 years. Capital costs for the project are estimated at between $160 and $200 million with expenditure of between $80 and $90 million in 2018. The project has an IRR of more than 20 percent.
Ahafo Mill Expansion (Africa) is designed to maximize resource value by improving production margins and accelerating stockpile processing. The project also supports profitable development of Ahafo’s highly prospective underground resources. First production is expected in the first half of 2019 with commercial production expected in the second half of 2019. The expansion is expected to increase average annual gold production by between 75,000 and 100,000 ounces per year for the first five years beginning in 2020. Capital costs for the project are estimated at between $140 and $180 million with expenditure of approximately $75 to $85 million in 2018. The project has an IRR of more than 20 percent.
Together the Ahafo expansion projects (Ahafo Mill Expansion and Subika Underground) improve Ahafo’s production to between 550,000 and 650,000 ounces per year for the first five full years of production (2020 to 2024). During this period Ahafo’s CAS is expected to be between $650 and $750 per ounce and AISC is expected to be between $800 and $900 per ounce. This represents average production improvement of between 200,000 and 300,000 ounces at CAS improvement of between $150 and $250 per ounce and AISC improvement of $250 to $350 per ounce, compared to 2016 actuals.
Twin Underground (North America) is a portal mine beneath Twin Creek’s Vista surface mine with similar mineralization. First production was achieved in August 2017 with commercial production expected mid-2018. The expansion is expected to average between 30,000 and 40,000 ounces per year for the first five years (2018 to 2022). During this period CAS is expected to be between $525 and $625 per ounce and AISC between $650 and $750 per ounce. Capital costs are expected to be between $45 and $55 million with expenditure of $15 to $25 million in 2018. The project IRR is expected to be about 20 percent.
Quecher Main (South America) will add oxide production at Yanacocha, leverage existing infrastructure and enable potential future growth at Yanacocha. First production is expected in early 2019 with commercial production in the fourth quarter of 2019. Quecher Main extends the life of the Yanacocha operation to 2027 with average annual gold production of approximately 200,000 ounces per year between 2020 and 2025 (100 percent basis). During the same period incremental CAS is expected to be between $750 and $850 per ounce and AISC between $900 and $1,000 per ounce. Capital costs for the project are expected to be between $250 and $300 million with expenditure of $80 to $90 million in 2018. The project IRR is expected to be greater than 10 percent.
Tanami Power (Australia) will lower Tanami power costs by approximately 20 percent beginning in 2019, mitigate fuel supply risk and reduce carbon emissions by 20 percent. The project includes a 450 kilometer natural gas pipeline to be constructed connecting the Tanami site to the Amadeus Gas Pipeline, and construction and operation of two on-site power stations. The gas supply, gas transmission and power purchase agreements are for a 10 year term with options to extend. The project is expected to result in net cash savings of approximately $34 per ounce beginning in 2019. Capital costs are estimated at between $225 and $275 million with annual cash lease payments over a 10 year term beginning in 2019 with approximately $10 million of owner’s costs paid in 2018. The project IRR is expected to be greater than 50 percent at $0.75 AUD.
Outlook
Newmont’s outlook reflects stable gold production and ongoing investment in its operating assets and most promising growth prospects. Newmont does not include development projects that have not yet been funded or reached execution stage in its outlook, which represents upside to production and cost guidance.
Attributable gold production remains unchanged at between 4.9 and 5.4 million ounces in 2018 and 2019. Longer term production is expected to remain stable at between 4.6 and 5.1 million ounces per year through 2022 excluding development projects which have yet to be approved.
North America production remains unchanged at between 2.0 and 2.2 million ounces in 2018. Production declines slightly in 2019 to between 1.8 and 2.0 million ounces due to planned stripping at Carlin and then increases to between 1.9 and 2.1 million ounces in 2020 due to higher grades at Twin Creeks, Cripple Creek & Victor and Long Canyon. The Company continues to pursue profitable growth opportunities at Carlin and Long Canyon.
South America production remains unchanged at between 615,000 and 675,000 ounces in 2018. Production is expected to be between 590,000 and 690,000 ounces in 2019 with the addition of Quecher Main and between 475,000 and 575,000 ounces per year in 2020 as Yanacocha laybacks are mined out and Merian transitions from saprolite to hard rock. The Company continues to advance near-mine growth opportunities at Merian and both oxide and sulfide potential at Yanacocha.
Australia production remains unchanged at between 1.5 and 1.7 million ounces in 2018. Production is expected to be between 1.4 and 1.6 million ounces in 2019 and 2020. In 2020, Boddington completes stripping and accesses higher grade ore which offsets the impact of processing lower grade stockpiles at KCGM. The Company continues to advance studies for a second expansion at Tanami.
Africa production remains unchanged at between 815,000 and 875,000 ounces in 2018. Production is expected to be between 1.1 and 1.2 million ounces in 2019 as the Ahafo Mill expansion reaches commercial production and between 880,000 and 980,000 ounces in 2020 as both Ahafo and Akyem reach lower open pit grade. The company continues to advance the Ahafo North project and other prospective surface and underground opportunities.
Gold cost outlook – CAS remains unchanged at between $700 and $750 per ounce in 2018. CAS is expected to be between $620 and $720 per ounce for 2019 and between $650 and $750 per ounce longer term through 2022. AISC remains unchanged at between $965 and $1,025 per ounce in 2018. AISC is expected to be between $870 and $970 per ounce in 2019 and longer-term through 2022. Further Full Potential savings and profitable ounces from projects that are not yet approved represent additional upside not currently captured in guidance.
North America CAS improved to be between $730 and $780 per ounce in 2018 due to expected concentrate recovery improvements and higher recoverable leach ounces at CC&V. CAS is expected to be between $680 and $780 per ounce in 2019 and between $655 and $755 per ounce in 2020 on higher production at Twin Creeks, Cripple Creek & Victor and Long Canyon. AISC has improved to be between $920 and $955 per ounce in 2018 on improved unit CAS. AISC is expected to be between $870 and $970 per ounce in 2019 and between $825 and $925 in 2020.
South America CAS improved to be between $675 and $735 per ounce in 2018 due to mill feed optimization at Yanacocha. CAS is expected to be between $560 and $660 per ounce in 2019 as Quecher Main reaches commercial production and be between $690 and $790 per ounce in 2020. AISC improved to be between $925 and $1,025 per ounce in 2018 on lower unit CAS. AISC is expected to be between $810 and $910 per ounce in 2019 on improved unit CAS and be between $970 and $1,070 per ounce in 2020.
Australia CAS remains unchanged at between $675 and $725 per ounce in 2018. CAS is expected to be between $670 and $770 per ounce in 2019 and 2020. AISC remains unchanged at between $830 and $890 per ounce in 2018. AISC is expected to be between $840 and $940 per ounce in 2019 and 2020.
Africa CAS remains unchanged at between $680 and $730 per ounce in 2018. CAS is expected to be between $520 and $620 per ounce in 2019 and between $610 and $710 per ounce in 2020. AISC remains unchanged at between $865 and $925 per ounce in 2018. AISC is expected to be between $700 and $800 per ounce in 2019 as the Ahafo Mill expansion reaches commercial production and between $775 and $875 per ounce in 2020.
Copper – Attributable production remains unchanged at between 40,000 and 60,000 tonnes in 2018 and 2019, increasing to between 45,000 and 65,000 tonnes longer term through 2022 as Phoenix moves into higher copper zones. CAS remains unchanged at between $1.65 and $1.85 per pound in 2018. CAS is expected to be between $1.80 and $2.20 per pound in 2019 before falling to between $1.40 and $1.80 per pound longer term as Phoenix moves into higher copper zones. AISC remains unchanged at between $2.00 and $2.20 per pound in 2018. AISC is expected to be between $2.25 and $2.55 per pound in 2019 and between $1.80 and $2.10 per pound longer term.
Capital – Total capital remains unchanged at between $1,200 and $1,300 million for 2018 and is expected to remain between $730 and $830 million for 2019. Primary development capital includes expenditure on the Ahafo Mill and Subika Underground expansions in Africa, Twin Underground in North America and Quecher Main in South America and Tanami Power Project. Sustaining capital remains unchanged at between $600 and $700 million in 2018, between $600 and $700 million for 2019 and between $550 and $650 million per year longer term to cover infrastructure, equipment and ongoing mine development.
Consolidated expense outlook – Interest expense for 2018 remains unchanged at between $175 and $215 million while investment in exploration and advanced projects remains unchanged at between $350 and $400 million. 2018 outlook for general & administrative costs remains unchanged at between $215 and $240 million and guidance for depreciation and amortization remains unchanged at between $1,225 and $1,325 million.
Assumptions and sensitivities – Newmont’s outlook assumes $1,200 per ounce gold price, $2.50 per pound copper price, $0.75 USD/AUD exchange rate and $55 per barrel WTI oil price. A $100 per ounce increase in gold price would deliver an expected $335 million improvement in attributable free cash flow. Similarly, a $10 per barrel reduction in the price of oil and a $0.05 favorable change in the Australian dollar would deliver an expected $25 million and $45 million improvement in attributable free cash flow, respectively. These estimates exclude current hedge programs; please refer to Newmont’s Form 10-Q which was filed with the SEC on April 26, 2018 for further information on hedging positions.
